# BUSN 688 : Case Problem Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales Time Series Plot

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## Description

BUSN 688 : Case Problem Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales Time Series Plot

The Vintage Restaurant, on Captiva Island near Fort Myers, Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its third year of operation. During that time, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. Through the efforts of Karen and her staff, her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the island. To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. Table 6.17 shows the value of food and beverage sales (\$1000s) for the first three years of operation. Month Sales

 Month Sales 1 242 2 235 3 232 4 178 5 184 6 140 7 145 8 152 9 110 10 130 11 152 12 206 13 263 14 238 15 247 16 193 17 193 18 149 19 157 20 161 21 122 22 130 23 167 24 230 25 282 26 255 27 265 28 205 29 210 30 160 31 166 32 174 33 126 34 148 35 173 36 235

Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:

1.A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series.

2.Using the dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year. Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be \$295,000. What was your forecast error? If this error is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty in the forecasting procedure?

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